This war has real consequences, exemplified by the mystery surrounding the third set of the block, codenamed Action. Yes, even still, we know only the codename of the set. But what we do know is that it's either going to be Mirrodin Pure or New Phyrexia, and it all depends on who wins this war.
Who's going to win? What is the ultimate fate of Mirrodin? And what about Karn, held in the core of Mirrodin and being manipulated by the five Phyrexian Praetors to be the new Father of Machines?
No one (at least, no one outside Wizards of the Coast) knows the answers to these questions for sure, but I've certainly heard a lot of smart people making some very confident assertions.
Stay with me, dear readers. I'll tell you everything.
Today on Journey to Nowhere, we'll look at the facts, I'll give you my thoughts and conclusions, and you can decide for yourself if you want to be on the winning side (whichever one you think that may be).
Just the Facts
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| Let's play "What Do We Know?" |
The Scars of Mirrodin block was designed as a story-centric block. Everything Wizards is doing with the block tells a story, and we are living that story.
[Ref. Maro's Goal #1 here: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/mm/110]
One side WILL win. Some have speculated on some shenanigans here, but let's be honest. After all this build up of choosing a side, introducing a third option is just bad storytelling. What this means is that Action will definitely be either New Phyrexia or Mirrodin Pure. Period.
[Ref. Action Announcement: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/arcana/599]
Wizards is playing this one extremely close to the vest. Moreso than ever before. Even shippers and retailers don't know what the set is going to be. It's shipping in boxes labeled Action and stores got info sheets saying "Loose Lips Sink Ships."
[Ref. Action Retailer Solicitation: http://www.scribd.com/doc/47886506/Action-Solicitation]
Phyrexia is no longer limited to Black. From the January 26th Savor the Flavor article, we know that Mirrodin's access to all colors of mana has allowed Phyrexia to grow into five factions. But what we also know is that "This new form has made Phyrexia both stronger and weaker." The factions are not completely in unity. They have separate philosophies and separate leaders in the Five Praetors.
[Ref. Article: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/stf/127]
Speaking of the Praetors, who are they? The MBS Fat Pack included an insert detailing them and their philosophies, each a dark facet of their color's philosophy. Additionally, pictures of the Praetors have been appearing on the Mirrodin mini-site, meaning that there is commisioned art for them.
[Ref. MTG Salvation thread with text and scan: http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=300567]
Mirrodin Besieged Game day had two special preview prize cards from the next set for Faction aligned decks. These cards come from the set associated with the faction you aligned your deck with. Winning Mirran players got a Pristine Talisman and Phyrexians got Suture Priest. Both cards are confirmed to appear in the next set, whichever one it is.
[Ref. Arcana for Feb. 16: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/arcana/647]
Wizards employees are interested in what we think. Mark Rosewater conducted a twitter poll; results weren't released, but he did say: "From my Twitter feed, it is clear the majority of you believe Phyrexia is going to win (even a number of you want a Mirrodin victory)" and Tom LaPille asked a poll on his Latest Developments column of December 10 as to what the name of the next set would be. 50.0% said "New Phyrexia," 22.0% said "Mirrodin Pure," and 27.9% said "Something else" (I know that doesn't add up to 100%, but go with it). Bear in mind that "Something else" is not going to happen. Probably.
[Ref. Tweet, Jan. 20 http://twitter.com/#!/maro254/status/28177548848406529]
[Ref. Latest Developments: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/ld/121]
Mark Rosewater, on Undead Radio just before the MBS Release says in reference to planeswalkers who are appearing in the set: "Fans of Karn may want to stick around for later sets."
[Ref. Radio show: http://media.kisw.com/a/36623170/undead-radio-01-31-11.htm]
So what does this all mean?
Deep Analysis
Well let's start with the basics and move up to the whole picture. First I'll analyze the points outlined above, then I'll talk about what we should expect for each potential result, then I'll try to figure out what all this analysis suggests the outcome will be, maybe with some fun side observations included, just for fun!
The Scars of Mirrodin block was designed as a story-centric block. Everything Wizards is doing with the block tells a story, and we are living that story.
One side WILL win. Some have speculated on some shenanigans here, but let's be honest. After all this build up of choosing a side, introducing a third option is just bad storytelling. What this means is that Action will definitely be either New Phyrexia or Mirrodin Pure. Period.This one is pretty light, but it sets the tone for everything that follows. What we want to remember is that the block is about telling a story. Everything has been leading up to this next block and for what may be happening from here on out. We are living the story. From the Game Days to the mystery third block that we are all working it out, everything has been designed by Wizards to make us experience something. Some very smart people work on Magic, and they know that a lot of smart people play and talk about Magic. The little scraps of information that we have been fed are leading us to conclusions that have almost certainly been predicted. Which brings us to this:
Wizards is playing this one extremely close to the vest. Moreso than ever before. Even shippers and retailers don't know what the set is going to be. It's shipping in boxes labeled Action and stores got info sheets saying "Loose Lips Sink Ships."We can take this to mean that they are going to keep this secret as long as possible. When is that? Well, logistically, the latest you can imagine them taking this is some time during previews. Presumably it would be revealed as the feature article during Week 1, but it's conceivable that they could pick ambiguous spoilers. The main issue is how many spoilers can be sent out and revealed without anything conclusive emerging. This relates back to my previous point - Wizards is being very careful. Anything that they're showing has to be taken with a grain of salt - they could be intentionally misleading us, or only showing us part of the picture. They wouldn't take so many pains to keep these secrets and then give up key evidence one way or another.
Darkest Hour
So now that we've laid down some groundwork, let's start looking at actual evidence and start drawing conclusions. I'll look at the evidence I've collected above and talk about what it means for each possible set.
Phyrexia is no longer limited to Black, and they now have Praetors for each color.With Phyrexia moving into all colors, this could mean that Wizards is making it possible for Phyrexia to support itself in a whole set. While before this, some may have questioned the ability for a whole set to be based around a New Phyrexia, but having infect creep into White and other colors showing signs of Phyrexian influence, it certainly is more believable that Phyrexia could stand on its own in a set.
Obviously, Mirrodin doesn't need to prove that it can support a full set of colors though, so what does this mean from the Mirran standpoint? For one, if we presume that Mirrodin Pure is the next set, having the Phyrexians move into other colors in this one seems almost necessary; if they remained limited to black and green, having them disappear from the set would feel abrupt and unsatisfying. By giving them a set to shine, it ups the drama level - remember, the whole feeling that Wizards is trying to convey is a war that could be decided in either direction. The two factions need to feel equally matched in the middle set to work, that's why Mirrodin Besieged is split 50/50 between the two. And then for the prerelease faction packs to work, and just the general color balance of the set, Phyrexia had to be in multiple colors for the numbers to work out.
And what of the Praetors? At this point, it is basically a given that they will have their own cards in the next set. So what is their purpose, designwise and storywise in either possible set?
Generally speaking, they represent the part of the color pie that says that the colors are not inherently good or bad. Any color can be evil and each Praetor shows how that is true for their faction. Each Praetor also serves as a leader of its own Phyrexian faction. This is important to note - despite their claim that "All Will Be One," the Phyrexians themselves are not "One." They are divided, involved in power plays and secret plots. Some excerpts from the Mirrodin Minisite:
"The others think Urabrask is an arrogant fool who is simply spoiling for glorious battle with the Mirrans. But I'm not so sure. There is just enough method to his madness to leave me wondering. I see an endgame here... and I do not like it." - Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur
"Yes, I know what you are. After all, I know everything. I have a task for you. I want you kill Karn. [...] Karn is the usurper pretending to be the Father of Machines. He is mad and delusional and weak, and I need him to die so that I can take his place." [- Sheoldred, Whispering One]
What does this mean for the set? It could mean a lot of things - New Phyrexia could be about the various conflicts between the five factions, with Mirrans all-but destroyed. Mirrodin Pure could be about the fall of the Phyrexian forces to their own deceit and infighting. New Phyrexia could be Karn awakening and uniting the factions under his fist. Mirrodin Pure could be about Elesh Norn and the white Phyrexians turning on their allies and giving Mirrodin to the Mirrans.
There are so many possible stories that we can't simply look at the Praetors and imagine that we know everything. Wizards will most likely surprise us, no matter what. The fact that the Praetors exist is not nearly enough to determine anything. Like many things, it will depend on context, and we simply do not have that context yet.
Pristine Talisman and Suture Priest
Again, context is everything. Pristine Talisman doesn't tell us much about anything in this respect - obviously, it's a reference to the Talisman cycle from the original Mirrodin. Pristine does indicate "purification" - possibly in reference to Mirroding "Pure"?
On the other hand, Suture Priest says a lot. It is obviously Phyrexian (and notice the lack of a race in the type line, only a class), but it is also clearly not the Phyrexians we are used to. For one, look at the eyes. Suture Priest has the classic Phyrexian "Ichor Eyes" seen in Time Spiral and Apocalypse before that, meant to represent the Mask of Yawgmoth and his dark, corrupting Phyrexian influence (See http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtgcom/arcana/1389). But notice also that, rather than black ichor we see something else: Bloody. Red. Tears.
What does this signify? Why is this happening now? And the question everyone's asking - what does this mean for the set this card appears in?
Does it mean that there's a change in how Phyrexians are corrupting their victims? Or a change in their loyalties? Does it signify regret among the Phyrexians? Or is it a sign of something sinister? Could it be that the Phyrexians themselves are being "corrupted" from their original purpose? That Mirrodin is "purifying" the Phyrexians?
While some see Suture Priest as a clear answer to what the next set is (and most of these people feel that the answer it gives is "New Phyrexia"), I can only see new questions.
The "Ask the Audience" Lifeline
What about what we, the Magic fans, think? Every source I've seen has the Phyrexians as the predicted winners. What, if anything, does that tell us? I've mentioned this on my twitter feed (@setzerg), but I think that we're being set up by Wizards in that regard. This whole endeavor, from Wizards' perspective, is to generate buzz. To make people talk and to incite an exciting back and forth discussion of who might win. That's the whole point of the War Leagues, the Factioned Prereleases, the aligned decks, and everything else. More than anything else, all the build up to this set is about expectations. Wizards is straight-up asking us what we expect, but they also know their audience. I think they already knew what we would expect. Because they're making us expect it. They know that we, as humans and as Magic players, are generally extremely good at noticing patterns. After all of this time making cycles and designing 3-set blocks, they know that we think we can work out what's coming. And they can use that to make us feel something.
As this block has already been said to be a story-oriented block, think of it in terms of Story. In the archetypal 3 act story, the first act depicts he beginning of a problem. The second act depicts the problem growing, darkness gathering - all hope seems lost. And in the third act, we see good prevail over evil. This is the default - the classic story: good wins in the end. This is our baseline. Standing on its own, without the context of an overarching Magic story, there would be no question that Mirrodin Pure would win. But instead, Wizards is making this a question.
What this means is that they have to make us question our default, make it seem like Phyrexia could win, like the good guys really could lose everything. And they have done that. To me, it seems that Wizards is trying to make us think that Phyrexia can and will win. Whether you think that they are doing that because it really will or it really won't is up to you. And it's not really even clear to me. But I do think it's an interesting phenomenon and one that is definitely having the effect that Wizards wants: stirring up excitement.
Stray Thoughts
The important thing to not is that, in story terms, the second act is not the climax. Right now, we're in this block's second act. What follows won't be the aftermath of the war, it will be the conclusion. The third set will be showing us how we reach New Phyrexia or Mirrodin Pure, whichever one it is. So don't get hung up on how the Praetors can have cards if the set is Mirrodin Pure - how else could you show the Mirrans fighting (and possibly defeating) the most influential figures of the Phyrexian forces?
And what of Karn? No longer a planeswalker, returning from an unknown fate at the end of Future Sight, and said to be an important figure in the future of Magic by Mark Rosewater... Well, anything can happen. Whether corrupted or purified, (or one and then the other) he will certainly play a role. But as with everything else I've said, Context is everything.
Some have argued that if Mirrodin wins, we lose a villain. This isn't so true - the Phyrexians did this much from a single drop of oil. If the Phyrexians are defeated (and who is to say that they won't simply be driven off into the multiverse), they will certainly appear elsewhere, possibly bolstered by the progress they've made in this block.
Twitter personality @metaknightmare reminds me that the faction balance of the set could come into play: Scars of Mirrodin was 80% Mirran to 20% Phyrexian. Mirrodin Besieged boosted the Phyrexians up to 50%, equal with the Mirrans. @metaknightmare, along with many others, say that Action then might have 80% Phyrexians to 20% Mirrans, claiming that it continues the trend. This certainly might be true, and if the next set is New Phyrexia, I would definitely expect that distribution. My main problem with this is that I don't like the practice of assuming a trend exists based only on two data points. There's another part to this theory though - it has implications for Limited formats.
When we're drafting Action-Besieged-Scars, what will our first pack tell us? If it's Mirrodin Pure, with presumably fewer Phyrexian cards than Besieged, would we even be able to set ourselves up for an Infect strategy from Pack 1? If we play Sealed, will we have an overabundance of Mirran cards? It's hard to say, really. The real question that this line of thinking is asking is: What does it mean for our first pack to be biased? Is it healthy for the format?
I can't answer that for certain (though I do have faith in Wizards to give us a good Limited environment). But consider some numbers: Scars of Mirrodin had 249 cards. It had 41 Phyrexian cards and 19 cards with "infect" in the text, 10 of which are common. Mirrodin Besieged has 155 cards, 72 of which are Phyrexian, with 21 cards mentioning "infect" (though one of those cards is Burn the Impure). 8 of these are common. As an aside, note that that the smaller set size makes these cards slightly more likely to appear, which lets them shift the weight of infect cards to have more at rare and uncommon. Now, Action will have 175 cards. Notice the set size increase? Especially considering that 10 of Mirrodin Besieged's slots were taken up by new basic lands. Why would we need more card slots? If we're going with the idea that Wizards might be worried about not having enough infect in set 3 to approach similar proportions to the previous sets, it could be that this was done so that Mirrans could occupy a majority of the set while there still being enough space for the Phyrexian mechanics to see representation on enough cards.
I'll admit that the argument is a bit of a stretch. But I'll also note that I feel like assuming that Wizards will follow the faction balance trend is a stretch, so do with it as you like.
Choosing a Side
What about me? Those who follow me on Twitter will know that I'm on the Mirran side. And I'll admit, a good portion of my rationale for that is that I love being a Devil's advocate. I noticed everyone making predictions of Phyrexian victory and I can't help but fight the crowd. I like being contrary (but in a constructive way)! That's how I play Magic, and it's how I live my life.
So as they say (or at least, as I say...) "Pure for Sure!"
(Even though I'm not actually all that sure)
Chris Young
PS: Hit me up @setzerg on Twitter to watch me try and fit long arguments into 140 characters if you have any thoughts on the next set!
Special bonus post-facto addition!
Check out the art for Argent Mutation from the Mirrodin minisite: http://media.wizards.com/images/magic/som/factionwars/hotspots/lg/131598b.jpg
Hmmm... "argent"...
And that hand in the top right looks familiar...
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